Inflation numbers are in and came in much higher than expected. Even the core inflation numbers for both reports were higher than anticipated. Core inflation is intended to exclude some of the most volatile components, including food and energy costs, painting a picture in which the Federal Reserve will need to continue its tightening measures until inflation is under control. In particular, the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a significant increase above expectations, impacting businesses and potentially trickling down to consumers over time. The retail sales report also confirms that consumers have significantly slowed their purchases compared to the previous…

The FOMC Minutes and Consumer Sentiment report were the most impactful calendar items last week, further reinforcing the Federal Reserve's resolve to bring inflation down to its 2% target rate. While there is considerable speculation about another rate increase, recent analyst expectations suggest that the Fed will hold rates at their current level for some time. The Consumer Sentiment report showed a slight increase, largely driven by moderating gas prices, which have helped provide consumers with some relief.Consumer Sentiment ReportThe University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index was revised higher to 49.5 in June 2026, up from a preliminary reading of…

While the Core PCE Index came in at 3.0%, below the expected 3.3%, overall inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. With inflation still running above the Federal Reserve’s target, there remains room for rates to stay elevated or potentially increase over the next several rate decisions if the Fed remains focused on restraining inflation. The JOLTS job openings report has also revealed a larger-than-expected gap. Job growth across the board has been slowing, with growth concentrated in only a handful of sectors. The nonfarm payroll figures have also come in well below expectations, while the unemployment rate…