In the first FOMC Minutes of the year, the Federal Reserve signaled strongly that while officials remain vigilant for inflation exceeding their expectations, they have no plans to raise interest rates. Much of the apprehension among speculators is the monetary policy which could keep inflation higher than expected for some time. Meanwhile, unemployment reports indicate that the previous year remained stable, consistently staying below the annual high—a positive sign of a stronger job market.  However, this has been somewhat dampened by the recent reports of the Trade Deficit. Compared to the previous year, the trade gap has nearly doubled, potentially…

With the holiday season coming to a conclusion, there was little in the way of data releases. Last week, the main reports were the Chicago Business Barometer and the ISM Manufacturing Index, both indicating a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector. This comes as we await the upcoming administration change at the White House. The impact of this is relatively minimal, with lending rates continuing their downward trend. Next week we will be expecting the year-over-year for both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), wrapping up 2024. Chicago PMI The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as…

With Christmas concluding the prior week, there were few reports other than Consumer Confidence, which had come in slightly below expectations. This should prove to have little impact, especially in the following week. With the New Year on the horizon, there are no reports other than the Chicago Manufacturing output report for the entire week. Happy Holidays! Consumer Confidence A post-election pop in consumer confidence fizzled at the end of the year, owing to worries about the U.S. stock market and a potentially higher cost of living as a result of new tariffs. The index of consumer confidence dropped 8.1…