At Wednesday's meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to maintain the current federal funds rate target range of 5.25% to 5.50%. This decision comes amidst conflicting economic signals. Tailing that, there is the Chicago PMI, Non-farm Payrolls, and the full release of the Consumer Confidence report. All of these are expected to match current economic conditions. The prior week's GDP numbers also factor into the equation, informing that economic growth has slowed this year compared to the previous year for Quarter 1. The PCE Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred choice of inflation indicators, has shown inflation is…

Last week, the largest report was the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, leading into chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell speaking on the current state of the economy and the stance of the Federal Reserve. While the Beige Book has indicated some positive movement towards a strong economy, there have been many indicators from all inflation data that inflation has yet to be tamed to the standards of the Federal Reserve.  This was punctuated by Jerome Powell, as he discussed at length the Federal Reserve has yet to feel inflation is under control. This has dispelled all notion there will…

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is showing higher than expected inflation, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) is showing lower than expected inflation. The two are in conflict with each other; however, the Consumer Price Index is still the far greater indicator for inflation as it directly impacts the cost of living for everyone, not just production assets.  Given the Federal Reserve’s recent speeches it would seem that there is very likely to be a delay in the rate cuts this upcoming quarter. They have stated numerous times they are driven largely by data and that data has proven that…